Why even Robert Lewandowski does not beat his xG, why that doesn’t make him wasteful, and what 11 seasons of data reveal about true finishing outliers.
Great work again, Martin! I’m intrigued by the 0.95 goals per xG. It should be much closer to 1 over a large sample, so I wonder if there is a simple explanation for this?
That’s exactly what I expected as well. I redid the analysis with data from fbref (on 8 seasons instead of 11) and I get 0.97. I mean it’s not shocking. Could be just noise.
Great work again, Martin! I’m intrigued by the 0.95 goals per xG. It should be much closer to 1 over a large sample, so I wonder if there is a simple explanation for this?
That’s exactly what I expected as well. I redid the analysis with data from fbref (on 8 seasons instead of 11) and I get 0.97. I mean it’s not shocking. Could be just noise.